Posted: February 23, 2007 | |
Lots of nanotechnology in roadmap of the 21st century |
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(Nanowerk News) You might already have seen Peter Pesti's compilation "Detailed Roadmap of the 21st Century" posted at the Georgia Tech website. | |
Pesti's compilation is a year by year bullet point list of notable advances expected to happen in the 21st century, from 2006 onwards. The motivation for creating such a compilation is to allow us to evaluate predictions in context of other predictions; evaluate their credibility in view of the big picture; and finally, to enable us to better plan and prepare for the coming years. Since the goal is to provide an overview of predictions, the list contains no original research or predictions: all listed advances are marked with their sources. When time ranges are given in the original sources, the most pessimistic (ie. latest) predictions are used. While the compilation aims to be comprehensive, it does not aim to be coherent: it is up to the reader to resolve conflicting predictions by trusting one (or none) of the sources. | |
For ground truth reference, listed advances include planned phases of large science and construction projects (with plans extending mostly until 2015), some regular political and sporting events (until 2025), and the age of Britney Spears. Projections on the state of the world (until 2050) are from Goldman Sachs, PricewaterhouseCoopers, the United Nations and the US intelligence community. Technology development projections are from DoD roadmaps, a nanotechnolog expert survey, a semiconductor roadmap, and futurist opinions (Kurzweil, Klatz, Grossman, deGrey). An extensive compilation from British Telecom's futurologists is also included, although predictions on that list have no source indications and the authors compiling the list "do not necessarily approve or condone what we are predicting will happen". | |
Failed predictions are marked red, while successful ones are marked green. The compilation will be extended, and these marks will be updated as we move deeper into the century. No predictions will be taken off the list. | |
Just recently, someone has made a video using a selection of the Roadmap predictions. It's quite amusing to watch, although the music becomes somewhat annoying. | |
There are quite a few nanotechnology relevant predictions in the list. Keep in mind what happened to this kind of predictions in the past ("flying cars" by 2001 etc.). Some are pretty far out, as might be expected from Kurzweil et. al., some are pretty realistic, especially the shorter term ones. | |
2009 | |
NRAM - nanotube ram, always-on high density computer memory | |
2010 | |
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2015 | |
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2017 | |
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2018 | |
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2019 | |
Nanoengineered machines are beginning to be applied to manufacturing and process-control applications | |
2020 | |
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2023 | |
Introductory nanofactory | |
2025 | |
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2030 | |
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2035 | |
Nanotechnology weapons used in war, over 500 million dead | |
2040 | |
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2049 | |
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